On the road to prosperity? The economic geography of China's national expressway network

Over the past two decades, China has embarked on an ambitious program of expressway network expansion. By facilitating market integration, this program aims both to promote efficiency at the national level and to contribute to the catch-up of lagging inland regions with prosperous Eastern ones. This paper evaluates the aggregate and spatial economic impacts of China's newly constructed National Expressway Network, focussing, in particular, on its short-run impacts. To achieve this aim, the authors adopt a counterfactual approach based on the estimation and simulation of a structural "new economic geography" model. Overall, they find that aggregate Chinese real income was approximately 6 percent higher than it would have been in 2007 had the expressway network not been built. Although there is considerable heterogeneity in the results, the authors do not find evidence of a significant reduction in disparities across prefectural level regions or of a reduction in urban-rural disparities. If anything, the expressway network appears to have reinforced existing patterns of spatial inequality, although, over time, these will likely be reduced by enhanced migration

Evidence for an active fault below the northwestern Alpine foreland of Switzerland

This study is devoted to the analysis of a prominent concentration of earthquakes whose epicenters delineate an active 20-30 km long N—S trending tectonic feature near the town of Fribourg, in the Molasse Basin of western Switzerland. This feature coincides with the possible southward continuation of the NNE—SSW trending Rhine Graben located approximately 80 km further north. In addition these epicenters are located in the vicinity of the Fribourg Syncline and the Alterswil Culmination, whose structural axes are oriented N—S in this area, instead of being aligned with the predominant regional NE—SW structural trend. Most of the earthquakes belong to one of three series of events that occurred over a time span of 2-4 months in 1987, 1995 and 1999. They include four events with magnitudes between 3 and 4 and one with a magnitude of 4.3. Focal depths, constrained by modelling sPMP-PMP traveltime differences with synthetic seismograms, are around 2 km, which places these events in the sedimentary cover. Fault plane solutions correspond to almost pure strike-slip mechanisms with nearly N—S and E—W oriented nodal planes. High-precision relative locations of individual events within the different earthquake clusters as well as of the relative locations of the clusters to each other show that these earthquakes are associated with left lateral motion along a N—S trending fault system. Deep reaching large scale flower structures in the Mesozoic and Tertiary overburden are observed on interpreted seismic profiles, close to the hypocenters. The unusual N—S trend of the Fribourg Syncline can be attributed to movements along these faults during Oligocene and Miocene times. Also magnetic data support the assumption of a N—S striking fault system in the Fribourg area, possibly related to a Permo-Carboniferous trough. Though the direct link between the fault traces in the overburden and the active fault system at depth could not be established in this study, their similar deformational style and their vicinity suggest that they are related. The total length of the inferred fault carries the potential of a magnitude 6 earthquake and thus constitutes a significant source of seismic hazar

Determinants of City Growth in Brazil

In this paper, we examine the determinants of Brazilian city growth between 1970 and 2000. We consider a model of a city, which combines aspects of standard urban economics and the new economic geography literatures. For the empirical analysis, we constructed a dataset of 123 Brazilian agglomerations, and estimate aspects of the demand and supply side as well as a reduced form specification that describes city sizes and their growth. Our main findings are that increases in rural population supply, improvements in inter-regional transport connectivity and education attainment of the labor force have strong impacts on city growth. We also find that local crime and violence, measured by homicide rates impinge on growth. In contrast, a higher share of private sector industrial capital in the local economy stimulates growth. Using the residuals from the growth estimation, we also find that cities who better administer local land use and zoning laws have higher growth. Finally, our policy simulations show that diverting transport investments from large cities towards secondary cities do not provide significant gains in terms of national urban performance.

Population Distribution, Settlement Patterns and Accessibility across Africa in 2010

The spatial distribution of populations and settlements across a country and their interconnectivity and accessibility from urban areas are important for delivering healthcare, distributing resources and economic development. However, existing spatially explicit population data across Africa are generally based on outdated, low resolution input demographic data, and provide insufficient detail to quantify rural settlement patterns and, thus, accurately measure population concentration and accessibility. Here we outline approaches to developing a new high resolution population distribution dataset for Africa and analyse rural accessibility to population centers. Contemporary population count data were combined with detailed satellite-derived settlement extents to map population distributions across Africa at a finer spatial resolution than ever before. Substantial heterogeneity in settlement patterns, population concentration and spatial accessibility to major population centres is exhibited across the continent. In Africa, 90% of the population is concentrated in less than 21% of the land surface and the average per-person travel time to settlements of more than 50,000 inhabitants is around 3.5 hours, with Central and East Africa displaying the longest average travel times. The analyses highlight large inequities in access, the isolation of many rural populations and the challenges that exist between countries and regions in providing access to services. The datasets presented are freely available as part of the AfriPop project, providing an evidence base for guiding strategic decisions

Analyzing the Number of Common Integration Sites of Viral Vectors – New Methods and Computer Programs

Vectors based on γ-retroviruses or lentiviruses have been shown to stably express therapeutical transgenes and effectively cure different hematological diseases. Molecular follow up of the insertional repertoire of gene corrected cells in patients and preclinical animal models revealed different integration preferences in the host genome including clusters of integrations in small genomic areas (CIS; common integrations sites). In the majority, these CIS were found in or near genes, with the potential to influence the clonal fate of the affected cell. To determine whether the observed degree of clustering is statistically compatible with an assumed standard model of spatial distribution of integrants, we have developed various methods and computer programs for γ-retroviral and lentiviral integration site distribution. In particular, we have devised and implemented mathematical and statistical approaches for comparing two experimental samples with different numbers of integration sites with respect to the propensity to form CIS as well as for the analysis of coincidences of integration sites obtained from different blood compartments. The programs and statistical tools described here are available as workspaces in R code and allow the fast detection of excessive clustering of integration sites from any retrovirally transduced sample and thus contribute to the assessment of potential treatment-related risks in preclinical and clinical retroviral gene therapy studies

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of asthma in ethnically diverse North American populations.

Asthma is a common disease with a complex risk architecture including both genetic and environmental factors. We performed a meta-analysis of North American genome-wide association studies of asthma in 5,416 individuals with asthma (cases) including individuals of European American, African American or African Caribbean, and Latino ancestry, with replication in an additional 12,649 individuals from the same ethnic groups. We identified five susceptibility loci. Four were at previously reported loci on 17q21, near IL1RL1, TSLP and IL33, but we report for the first time, to our knowledge, that these loci are associated with asthma risk in three ethnic groups. In addition, we identified a new asthma susceptibility locus at PYHIN1, with the association being specific to individuals of African descent (P = 3.9 × 10(-9)). These results suggest that some asthma susceptibility loci are robust to differences in ancestry when sufficiently large samples sizes are investigated, and that ancestry-specific associations also contribute to the complex genetic architecture of asthma

Spatiotemporal patterns of population in mainland China, 1990 to 2010

According to UN forecasts, global population will increase to over 8 billion by 2025, with much of this anticipated population growth expected in urban areas. In China, the scale of urbanization has, and continues to be, unprecedented in terms of magnitude and rate of change. Since the late 1970s, the percentage of Chinese living in urban areas increased from ~18% to over 50%. To quantify these patterns spatially we use time-invariant or temporally-explicit data, including census data for 1990, 2000, and 2010 in an ensemble prediction model. Resulting multi-temporal, gridded population datasets are unique in terms of granularity and extent, providing fine-scale (~100 m) patterns of population distribution for mainland China. For consistency purposes, the Tibet Autonomous Region, Taiwan, and the islands in the South China Sea were excluded. The statistical model and considerations for temporally comparable maps are described, along with the resulting datasets. Final, mainland China population maps for 1990, 2000, and 2010 are freely available as products from the WorldPop Project website and the WorldPop Dataverse Repository

Methodology and software to detect viral integration site hot-spots

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Modern gene therapy methods have limited control over where a therapeutic viral vector inserts into the host genome. Vector integration can activate local gene expression, which can cause cancer if the vector inserts near an oncogene. Viral integration hot-spots or 'common insertion sites' (CIS) are scrutinized to evaluate and predict patient safety. CIS are typically defined by a minimum density of insertions (such as 2-4 within a 30-100 kb region), which unfortunately depends on the total number of observed VIS. This is problematic for comparing hot-spot distributions across data sets and patients, where the VIS numbers may vary.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We develop two new methods for defining hot-spots that are relatively independent of data set size. Both methods operate on distributions of VIS across consecutive 1 Mb 'bins' of the genome. The first method 'z-threshold' tallies the number of VIS per bin, converts these counts to z-scores, and applies a threshold to define high density bins. The second method 'BCP' applies a Bayesian change-point model to the z-scores to define hot-spots. The novel hot-spot methods are compared with a conventional CIS method using simulated data sets and data sets from five published human studies, including the X-linked ALD (adrenoleukodystrophy), CGD (chronic granulomatous disease) and SCID-X1 (X-linked severe combined immunodeficiency) trials. The BCP analysis of the human X-linked ALD data for two patients separately (774 and 1627 VIS) and combined (2401 VIS) resulted in 5-6 hot-spots covering 0.17-0.251% of the genome and containing 5.56-7.74% of the total VIS. In comparison, the CIS analysis resulted in 12-110 hot-spots covering 0.018-0.246% of the genome and containing 5.81-22.7% of the VIS, corresponding to a greater number of hot-spots as the data set size increased. Our hot-spot methods enable one to evaluate the extent of VIS clustering, and formally compare data sets in terms of hot-spot overlap. Finally, we show that the BCP hot-spots from the repopulating samples coincide with greater gene and CpG island density than the median genome density.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The z-threshold and BCP methods are useful for comparing hot-spot patterns across data sets of disparate sizes. The methodology and software provided here should enable one to study hot-spot conservation across a variety of VIS data sets and evaluate vector safety for gene therapy trials.</p